BFG Maintenance LtdHVAC & Building Services
St Ermin's Hotel — VRV Critical Spares & Life Cycle Risk
Prepared for St Ermin's Hotel, Westminster · Issued 31/07/2026
If we spend £X, how much exposure do we remove, and what is still exposed?
Private and confidential. Prepared for St Ermin's Hotel. Not for distribution outside the hotel's management team. All prices ex VAT.
Source document
Every part we would hold, ranked
Ranked by criticality — how bad it is if it fails, times how likely that is. Highest first. Indoor and outdoor together, because the worst part in the estate is an indoor one.
Limitations of this assessment
Failure modes, detection and sources
Sources
Assumptions
Every figure below is editable. The defaults reproduce the £114,000 exposure avoided per breakdown, for 10 rooms on one VRV condenser system group, already issued to the hotel on 17/07/2026.
Downtime by state of preparedness
The same failure on one VRV condenser system group, under four different states of preparedness.
What each increment of spend covers
Spend is allocated one whole failure at a time: at each step, the cheapest set of parts that restores one more failure mode in the assessed scope. A part that only half-covers a failure buys nothing, because the rooms stay out either way.
What each pound buys
A step, not a curve: between covered failures the line is flat, because holding some of a failure's parts restores nothing. Each riser is one whole failure mode becoming covered.
The basket
The same selection, as it appears in your spreadsheet
Every row below is a line from the critical spares workbook — same tab, same drawing item, same part number, same unit price. Highlighted rows are what the slider has selected, and they add up to the spend above.
Back-test: the recorded breakdowns, and what the holding covers
Cost against risk reduction, per part
Vertical axis is the estimated saving per part, per year — an estimate for ranking, not the headline annual figure, and the rows must not be added together. Bubble size is nights avoided. Top-left is buy-now; bottom-right justifies cutting.
Options
Three options. Two of them are not alternatives to each other — spares and a spare condenser set address different failures and can both be right.
Source document
Life cycle replacement, 2026 → 2030
The same years, as they appear in your spreadsheet
The life cycle schedule, in its own layout. Rows are highlighted where the work fits inside the ceiling you have set; dimmed rows slip to a later year.
Indoor unit replacement — scope and cost
Worked example of how the spend is modelled: counts, condition and a rate built from its parts. The same method extends to the rest of the plant and equipment on the schedule.